A sign of the times, or is something else going on?
Late last week, Post Malone announced that he would be postponing the start of his Big Ass Stadium Tour and canceling the first six scheduled stops before kicking off in June.
Post has been teasing a new 40-song album called The Eternal Buzz, and in announcing the cancelations, he said that he was pushing back the start of the tour to focus on finishing up his next album:
“Looking at the upcoming schedule after stagecoach, I came to the realization that what we were trying to do, and what’s possible, isn’t really lining up.
Truth is, I promised y’all beautiful people new music, and I don’t have the time to finish it before tour starts. We ain’t ready for tour just yet, so I’m making the decision to push the tour back about 3 weeks to get this music done.
That being said, I’m so sorry to the folks who were planning on coming to the few canceled shows. I was looking forward to going nuts with y’all.
That THAT being said, we been making some badass shit for this double album… and I can’t wait to perform for y’all again.”
Of course, ahead of the announcement that the shows were cancelled, there was plenty of talk about low ticket sales for the tour, with many of the shows appearing to have sold less than 50% of the available tickets (while others appear to have sold well).
But Posty is far from the only tour cancellation we’ve seen so far. Just last month, pop star Meghan Trainor cancelled her entire tour, just months after welcoming her new son, citing her desire to spend time with her family. And yesterday, the Pussycat Dolls cancelled the North American leg of their reunion tour – and in a rare move, they straight up told fans that it was due to low ticket sales:
“After taking an honest look at the North American run, we’ve made the difficult and heartbreaking decision to cancel all but one of the North America dates.”
(Dolly Parton also recently canceled her Las Vegas residency, which had already been rescheduled to the fall, but that’s due to ongoing health issues and not poor ticket sales).
Of course these tour cancellations also come on the heels of several major country festivals announcing that they’re hanging it up or “taking a pause,” which is industry speak for hanging it up.
So what’s going on? Is this a sign of trouble for the live music industry?
The New York Post came out with an article yesterday blaming the cancellations on “blue dot fever,” a way of saying low ticket sales and that there were still a lot of blue dots on the seating map when you looked at Ticketmaster.
Fans have grown increasingly frustrated with increased ticket prices lately, and hidden fees that often present a surprise at checkout (though both the Biden and Trump administration have tried to address this in recent years).
And everybody knows what’s going on with the economy right now. Inflation, gas prices, layoffs and a host of other economic factors are causing families to pull back on their spending, and naturally things like concerts and live entertainment are the first thing to go.
But on the flip side of the tours that have been cancelled, Morgan Wallen, Zach Bryan and Luke Combs are all on stadium tours right now, and don’t seem to be having trouble selling tickets.
Morgan, in particular, is playing two nights in most cities on his Still the Problem Tour. And taking a quick look at Ticketmaster, there are still tickets available for his upcoming shows this weekend in Indianapolis, but most are either in sections with obstructed views, or are the tickets closest to the stage (i.e. the most expensive seats).
Many have cited the fact that Morgan released an album last year, as opposed to Post Malone, who hasn’t released an album since his 2024 country debut F-1 Trillion. Obviously when you don’t have a new album to support with your tour, there’s not as much excitement – especially when you’ve already been on one stadium tour supporting the album.
(I’ll admit that I’m not as familiar with what Meghan Trainor and the Pussycat Dolls have going on, but it’s safe to say that they’re not as big of names right now as Post Malone).
We’ve also seem a fundamental shift in how artists make money over the past decade or so. Before streaming, artists could rely on record sales to make up the bulk of their income. Artists could take a year or two off from touring, because it wasn’t as important to the bottom line. But now, most of their money comes from touring and merch sales, which means artists spending more time on the road, playing more shows, and fans have more opportunities than ever to see their favorite artists in person. (Obviously there are some exceptions: Artists who are selling out stadiums don’t have to play as many shows as artists playing theaters and clubs).
This means artists may have a harder time gauging demand when booking tours. Does selling out a stadium one year necessarily mean selling out a stadium the next year? Is it better to play it safe and book arena tours and risk booking too small of a venue (and thus increasing the demand and driving up ticket prices), or gamble on bigger venues and risk being forced to cancel tours for low ticket sales?
We could also see artists releasing more music to try to make sure there’s continued demand for their tours. But regardless, I think it’s safe to say that the tour cancellations have to be a little unnerving for the rest of the industry.
Artists are no doubt going to be more cautious with the size of venues they’re booking right now, which means fewer tickets available. And the basic laws of supply and demand say that fewer tickets = higher prices, at a time when consumers have already proven to be price sensitive and willing to cut back on live entertainment.
I think it’s clear that there’s going to be some tension between supply and demand – which could drive ticket prices higher – and economic factors that limit what customers are willing to pay. And honestly, I’m not sure where it’s going to land: Do we see prices drop so artists can make sure they’re selling enough tickets, or do they play smaller venues and increase the prices to try to make up for the limited number of seats? Who knows.
Now, do I think this is going to be a permanent shift? Definitely not. The entertainment industry has, traditionally, been largely recession-proof. There are clearly some effects of a struggling economy, but for the most part people are still going to seek out live entertainment that fits their budget.
At the moment though, it’s on the artists to try to figure out just what customers are willing to pay – and how many tickets they’re willing to buy.
